'10 breakthrough technologies'
MIT Review shared its prediction for the 10 biggest technological breakthroughs of 2024 on the first day of SXSW. Elizabeth Bramson-Boudreau of MIT Technology presented each of the trends that are particularly aimed at making a positive contribution to the challenges we currently face. From super efficient solar cells to the first gene therapy treatments and from improved geothermal systems to weight-loss drugs; if they do indeed break through this year, they will serve very useful purposes.
Of course, as a zeitgeist fetishist, I couldn't resist the temptation to ask myself to what extent such service-oriented innovations fit the changing societal mindset. Are tech novelties focusing on other themes and ambitions in the last few years? Has there been a tilt over the years? Is the transition from a world of self-confidence to a world of uncertainty - as we are with Futurise® describe and interpret - also reflected in the type of tech that has come through in recent years?
Since MIT has been closely monitoring the world's technological developments since 1899, it was relatively easy to collect their breaktrough predictions from the past 10 years and place them in chronological order on the timeline. And since we were here during SXSW being inundated with AI stories, I decided to analyze the list with ChatGPT ;-).
I shared the MIT list of 10 x 10 technology breakthroughs from 2015 through 2024 with ChatGPT and asked the artificial brain what stood out in terms of what those technologies are focused on and what purpose or theme they serve. A conversation with ChatGPT led to the reflection below:
Like me, ChatGPT immediately noticed a shift in the zeitgeist and its influence on technological breakthroughs over the past 10 years. That tilt is remarkable and reveals the changing dynamics of technological breakthroughs. About 10 years ago, technological advances were primarily driven by a drive for efficiency, economic growth and competition. Here the focus was primarily on technological disruption and the maximization of productivity, with less attention to broader social and ethical issues.
But for several years now, starting in 2020, we have seen a clear shift toward a more responsible and human-centered approach to technology. Sustainability, inclusiveness, collaboration, ethical AI and individual empowerment have become the core themes. This shift is driven by the changing zeitgeist and a corresponding growing awareness of the impact of technology on our planet and society, as well as the recognition of the importance of equal opportunity, privacy, and ethical use of data and AI.
If you go through the glasses from Futurise® look at MIT's technology breakthrough predictions, you'll see at least five shifts that have taken place in recent years:
Shift 1: From technological progress to sustainability and social responsibility
The focus has shifted from purely technological advances to a more sustainable and responsible approach to technology. Technological breakthroughs are no longer focused solely on economic growth, but also on addressing climate challenges and creating positive social impact.
Examples of technologies that illustrate this shift are:
For the tipping point:
- Hot Solar Cells (2017): This technology focuses on improving the efficiency of solar cells, allowing them to generate more energy from sunlight. The primary goal is to stimulate economic growth through the development of renewable energy sources, aimed at increasing energy production and reducing dependence on fossil fuels.
- Practical Quantum Computers (2017): The development of practical quantum computers focuses on improving computing power and solving complex problems in a much more efficient manner than traditional computers. This technology aims to drive technological progress and economic growth by creating new opportunities for data analysis and computer modeling.
- Tesla Autopilot (2016): The introduction of self-driving technologies such as Tesla Autopilot is aimed at promoting technological advances and economic growth in the transportation sector. It offers opportunities for more efficient transportation solutions and reduced reliance on human drivers.
After the tipping point:
- Green Hydrogen (2021): This technology harnesses renewable energy sources to produce low-carbon hydrogen, accelerating the transition to clean energy. It focuses on addressing climate challenges and reducing dependence on fossil fuels, thus having a positive impact on the environment and society.
- Digital Contact Tracing (2021): This technology uses digital means to facilitate contact tracing and control the spread of infectious diseases, especially during pandemics such as COVID-19. It focuses on protecting public health and promoting social responsibility by reducing the spread of disease.
- Remote Everything (2021): With the rise of digital technologies such as telecommuting, online education and telehealth, "Remote Everything" aims to increase access to services and opportunities regardless of location. It promotes inclusivity and diversity by providing equal opportunities for individuals even in remote areas.
Shift 2: From focus on efficiency to inclusiveness and diversity
The emphasis has shifted from mere efficiency to promoting inclusiveness and diversity in technological developments. There is a growing awareness of the need to create equal opportunity and reduce social inequality through technology.
Examples of technologies that illustrate this shift are:
For the tipping point:
- Self-Driving Trucks (2017): This technology aims to make transportation more efficient by automating trucks, reducing costs and increasing efficiency in the logistics sector. The goal is to achieve large-scale efficiency by replacing human drivers with autonomous systems.
- Reinforcement Learning (2016): This technology focuses on developing algorithms capable of performing tasks and making decisions based on rewards and punishments. The primary goal is to create more efficient systems for tasks such as automation and optimization, aimed at improving processes without human intervention.
- Slack (2016): Slack is a communication platform designed to improve the efficiency of team communication. It integrates messaging, file sharing and collaboration tools on a single platform, allowing teams to communicate and collaborate more effectively. The goal is to streamline communication within organizations and make it more efficient.
After the tipping point:
- Abortion Pills via Telemedicine (2023): This technology aims to increase access to health care, especially for women in remote areas, by providing abortion pills via telemedicine. The goal is to promote inclusiveness by reducing barriers to accessing safe abortion services.
- Apple Vision Pro (2024): This technology aims to improve accessibility for people with visual impairments. It provides advanced visual aids and functionalities on Apple devices, allowing people with various levels of visual impairment to better communicate and participate in digital activities.
- Twitter Killers (2024): This technology is designed to address online harassment and abuse on social media platforms. It aims to make the online environment safer and more inclusive by detecting and removing harmful content, promoting a more positive and inclusive online experience.
Shift 3: From competition to openness and cooperation
A shift is evident from competitive to more collaborative and open approaches to technological innovation. Collaboration and knowledge sharing are becoming increasingly important in driving technological progress and innovation.
Examples of technologies that illustrate this shift are:
For the tipping point:
- Gene Therapy 2.0 (2017): This technology involves the development of advanced gene therapies to treat genetic disorders. Instead of open collaboration, pharmaceutical companies and research institutes are often embroiled in competition to be the first to market effective gene therapies and gain market leadership.
- Precision Gene Editing in Plants (2016): This technology focuses on using precision genetic technologies such as CRISPR to make genetic modifications in plants, making them more resistant to diseases and climate change. Competition between agrochemical companies and biotechnology companies is common to produce and patent the most advanced genetically modified crops.
- Artificial Embryos (2018): This includes the creation of artificial embryos through cell biology and synthetic biology. While it has potential for applications in reproductive medicine and research, competitive advantage is often sought by research groups and companies pioneering these technologies.
After the tipping point:
- Data Trust (2021): This concept involves sharing data between different stakeholders in a secure and trustworthy manner. It promotes collaboration and openness by creating a common platform for sharing data, encouraging innovation and enabling wider access to data.
- Synthetic Data for AI (2022): This technology focuses on generating synthetic datasets to train machine learning models without relying on real data. It promotes openness and collaboration by sharing synthetic datasets between research groups and companies, accelerating the development of AI models.
- Messenger RNA Vaccines (2021): This vaccine technology, used in COVID-19 vaccines, uses collaboration between scientists, pharmaceutical companies and governments to develop and distribute vaccines quickly and effectively. It highlights the importance of openness and collaboration in addressing global health crises.
Shift 4: From implicit trust to responsible use of AI and data ethics
The focus has shifted from uncritical embrace of technological advances to a greater emphasis on ethical and responsible use of AI and data. There is a growing awareness of the potential impact of technology on individuals and societies, and the need to integrate ethical considerations into technological developments.
Examples of technologies that illustrate this shift are:
For the tipping point:
- Apple Pay (2015): Apple Pay is an example of a technology that was embraced for its convenience and innovation without deep ethical considerations regarding data privacy and security. It was initially focused on improving the payment process for consumers without paying much attention to potential data misuse risks.
- The 360-Degree Selfie (2017): This technology, while innovative and interesting in terms of imaging, was mainly focused on creating impressive visual experiences without considering possible privacy issues or the potential for misuse of personal data.
- Sensing City (2018): This concept of creating smart cities through advanced sensor technologies was focused in 2018 on improving the efficiency and comfort of city dwellers, but less attention was paid to ethical issues related to data collection, privacy and possible discrimination.
After the tipping point:
- Multi-skilled AI (2021): This technology focuses on developing AI systems that can not only perform advanced tasks but also integrate ethical considerations such as transparency, privacy protection and fair decision-making. It emphasizes the responsible use of AI to minimize negative impacts.
- Digital Money (2020): Although the introduction of Apple Pay as a technology has been cited as an example of implicit trust, digital payment technology later in time is much more focused on ethics and accountability. It is now much more about leveraging blockchain technologies and cryptography to make financial transactions more secure and transparent, with a focus on preventing fraud and ensuring privacy.
- Differential Privacy (2020): Differential privacy is an approach to data privacy in data analysis that protects the privacy of individuals by adding statistical noise to the data. This technology focuses on ensuring privacy and ethical responsibility when using sensitive data for analysis and decision making.
Shift 5: From one-size-fits-all to individual-centered approaches
The approach to technology development has evolved from one solution for all to more individual-oriented. Technologies are increasingly designed to empower individuals and improve their well-being, rather than focusing only on large-scale efficiency improvements.
Examples of technologies that illustrate this shift are:
For the tipping point:
- Robot Dexterity (2019): This period focused on developing robotics with broad application, without much attention to the individual needs of users. Robotdexterity focused on improving the manipulation skills of robots, but without specific adaptations to individual tasks or environments.
- Zero-Carbon Natural Gas (2018): This technology aims to make large-scale power generation more sustainable by producing natural gas without carbon emissions. It focuses on providing a unified solution for the energy transition, without much differentiation to individual needs or local conditions.
- Internet of DNA (2015): The Internet of DNA aims to create a global network of genetic information to improve health care, but without much focus on individual variability or personalized medicine.
After the tipping point:
- Hyper-Personalized Medicine (2020): This technology focuses on delivering highly personalized treatments based on individual genetic information and other personal data, tailoring health care to the specific needs of each individual.
- AI for Protein Folding (2022): AI for protein folding uses advanced algorithms to predict protein structures based on individual genetic profiles, which can lead to personalized approaches to disease treatment and drug development.
- TikTok Recommendation Algorithms (2021): These algorithms aim to deliver personalized content to individual users based on their preferences and behavior, tailoring the experience on the platform to each user's specific interests.
Based on this analysis of the impact of the changing zeitgeist on technological breakthroughs, I expect that the technological breakthroughs predicted by MIT review in the coming years will begin to meet at least the following characteristics:
- Further integration of sustainability and social responsibility: I expect technological innovations to continue to focus on solving global challenges, such as climate change, social inequality and health care. This is going to result in more breakthroughs in renewable energy, climate recovery, health care access and food security.
- Increasing emphasis on inclusivity, diversity and equal opportunity: I think technologies are going to focus even more on creating equal opportunity and reducing social inequality. This is going to lead to more innovations aimed at improving access to education, employment, healthcare and financial services for underrepresented groups.
- Greater collaboration and openness in technology development: We are going to see a continuation of the trend toward greater collaboration and knowledge sharing between different parties, including governments, companies, academic institutions and non-profit organizations. This will result in more open-source technologies, public-private partnerships and international collaborations (even though I understood from Amy Webb yesterday that there are also major risks associated with all this openness, for example when it comes to accountability).
- Stricter regulation and ethical use of technology: There will be even more emphasis on regulating technological developments to ensure ethical and responsible use. The line taken by the EU with the AI act, for example, will continue. This is going to lead to stricter laws and regulations regarding data protection, privacy, AI ethics and cybersecurity.
- Further personalization and empowerment of individuals: Technologies are going to focus even more on providing personalized solutions and empowering individuals to achieve their own well-being and goals. This is going to lead to more innovations in healthcare, education, personal finance and lifestyle management.
Forecasting. Something different again. And an incredibly fun activity during this wonderfully inspiring conference in Austin. Will you be keeping an eye on them in the near future to see if they come true?
By the way, please feel free to contact me If you would like to share your reaction or exchange views on the content.
For completeness, I have also added below the complete list of MIT's 100 predictions from the past 10 years:
- Ai for everything (2024)
- Super-efficient solar cells (2024)
- Apple vision pro (2024)
- Weight-loss drugs (2024)
- Enhanced geothermal systems (2024)
- Chiplets (2024)
- The first gene-editing treatment (2024)
- Exascale Computers (2024)
- Heat pumps (2024)
- Twitter killers (2024)
- Crispr for high cholesterol (2023)
- AI that makes images (2023)
- A chip design that changes everything (2023)
- Mass-market military drones (2023)
- Abortion pills via telemedicine (2023)
- Organs on demand (2023)
- The inevitable ev (2023)
- James webb space telescope (2023)
- Ancient dna analysis (2023)
- Battery recycling (2023)
- The end of passwords (2022)
- Covid variant tracking (2022)
- A long-lasting grid battery (2022)
- AI for protein folding (2022)
- Malaria vaccine (2022)
- Proof of stake (2022)
- A pill for covid (2022)
- Practical fusion reactors (2022)
- Synthetic data for ai (2022)
- A carbon removal factory (2022)
- Messenger rna vaccines (2021)
- GPT-3 (2021)
- Data trust (2021)
- Tiktok recommendation algorithms (2021)
- Lithium-metal batteries (2021)
- Green hydrogen (2021)
- Digital contact tracing (2021)
- Hyper-accurate positioning (2021)
- Remote everything (2021)
- Multi-skilled ai (2021)
- Unhackable internet (2020)
- Hyper-personalized medicine (2020)
- Digital money (2020)
- Anti-aging drugs (2020)
- AI-discovered molecules (2020)
- Satellite mega-constellations (2020)
- Quantum supremacy (2020)
- Tiny ai (2020)
- Differential privacy (2020)
- Climate change attribution (2020)
- Robot dexterity (2019)
- New-wave nuclear power (2019)
- Predicting preemies (2019)
- Gut probe in a pill (2019)
- Custom cancer vaccines (2019)
- The cow-free burger (2019)
- Carbon dioxide catcher (2019)
- An ecg on your wrist (2019)
- Sanitation without sewers (2019)
- Smooth-talking ai assistants (2019)
- 3-d metal printing (2018)
- Artificial embryos (2018)
- Sensing city (2018)
- AI for everybody (2018)
- Dueling neural networks (2018)
- Babel-fish earbuds (2018)
- Zero-carbon natural gas (2018)
- Perfect online privacy (2018)
- Genetic fortune-telling (2018)
- Materials' quantum leap (2018)
- Reversing paralysis (2017)
- Self-driving trucks (2017)
- Paying with your face (2017)
- Practical quantum computers (2017)
- The 360-degree selfie (2017)
- Hot solar cells (2017)
- Gene therapy 2.0 (2017)
- The cell atlas (2017)
- Botnets of things (2017)
- Reinforcement learning (2016)
- Immune engineering (2016)
- Precise gene editing in plants (2016)
- Conversational interfaces (2016)
- Reusable rockets (2016)
- Robots that teach each other (2016)
- DNA app store (2016)
- Solarcity's gigafactory (2016)
- Slack (2016)
- Tesla autopilot (2016)
- Power from the air (2015)
- Magic leap (2015)
- Nano-architecture (2015)
- Car-to-car communication (2015)
- Project wage (2015)
- Liquid biopsy (2015)
- Megascale desalination (2015)
- Apple pay (2015)
- Brain organoids (2015)
- Supercharged photosynthesis (2015)
- Internet of dna (2015)
By Niels Hansen
Austin, Texas, March 10, 2024
Part of a group blog about SXSW2024
